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OP-UNEDITED | If You Are Confident Fela Durotoye Will Win, Read This

Inasmuch as we have written about the candidacy of Fela Durotoye for Presidency and the viability of success, we need you to see it from a different person altogether. No one is hating on him, we simply are helping him and those around him understand history particularly with the Nigerian politics. Read the thread below;

As Nigeria draws closer and closer to another election year in 2019, it is important for all Nigerians to understand out history, trends and events particularly in our politics. Nigeria’s Presidency seems to be the platinum office that everyone desires to get to because it holds so much influence to cause changes but unfortunately it has achieved little due to the structure of governance.

However, this piece is timely because in the 2019 (race to Nigeria’s Presidency) many new entrants particularly young people are making their way into politics and some wrongfully think that their first shot should be Nigeria’s Presidency. They are going under the umbrella and name of the third force which should challenge the two major political parties of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The purpose of this piece is to try to run a brief history of Nigeria’s leaders from 1960 while trying to show a trend that landed them as the most powerful men in Africa starting from Sir Tafawa Balewa.

By 1960 when Nigeria was getting set to be independent of Britain, there were meetings and conferences to decide how to share power between the various regions with the North, West and Eastern regions. The North had their leader as Sir Ahmadu Bello who proudly was the most influential leader at that time because he presided over more than half of the Nigerian map then. Chief Obafemi Awolowo was the leader from the West while Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe had his region to be in the East. Now, these three men were part of the major negotiations for the change of guard on October 1, 1960, and many expected the Prime Minister to come from them but it was not so.

Sir Tafawa Balewa was from the North and was the deputy to the Sardauna Ahmadu Bello. His boss picked him to be the Prime Minister which Britain decided for the North to have and they equally had the majority of members in the House. Balewa, you can say never expected to be Prime Minister but fate thrust it on him while Nnamdi Azikiwe who clearly was the leader of the nationalism struggled became a ceremonial President in 1963.

By January 1966, the military decided to leave the barracks and do what they know to do best; carry a coup. This coup which many believe brought to bear the ethnic distrust and hate among Nigerians and now the gun was used to express and interpret it. It failed because their plans were to make to Obafemi Awolowo who was in prison for treason President and when it was quelled by other officers; the civilians had to obey the men who had the power to take a life by the pull of a trigger. The General Officer Commanding (GOC) General Johnson T.U Aguiyi Ironsi became the first military Head of State of Nigeria. In his righteous might, he suspended the regional constitutions and decreed a unitary government and that would lead to his death six months later.

By July 1966, when the rematch coup (according to Max Siollun) came with Murtala Mohammad being the mastermind behind this coup with the hope that he would be picked as Head State but was disappointed. The man chosen to be the Head of State was Yakubu Gowon who was the most senior Northern officer at that time. And the history continued.

Yakubu Gowon presided over a war that lasted from 1967 to 1970 and after the whole nation was back as one and with the discovery of oil and the windfall that followed, Gowon did not find it wise to hand over power back to the civilians like he promised.

By the July 1975, a group of young officers decided that Yakubu Gowon was due to be deposed and this had Shehu Yar’adua and some others planning the coup. They simply asked for the blessings of Senior officers like Murtala Mohammed and Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma. An account was recounted of how Shehu Yar’adua and Joe Garba (both Colonels) visited Murtala at home and he was listening to a Koran recitation on his radio. They had to wait for half an hour before he responded. With the engagement regarding the coup, it was clear that Murtala did not expect to be picked as the next Head of State. With Gowon in Uganda for the African Union Conference and the coup completed, he relocated to London while Murtala Mohammed became the next Head of State with a wave of acceptance that no Nigerian leader has ever had. He was assisted by Olusegun Obasanjo and T.Y Danjuma.

After six months in power in power, Murtala Mohammad was assassinated February 1976. He was a hero to many and was mourned. However, the plotters of the coup which involved Lt. Colonel Bukar Suka Dimka were faulted and Colonel Ibrahim Babangida played a major in this. The plotters were apprehended and later revealed that the plan was to return Yakubu Gowon to power. While the nation mourned her hero, there was a need for a successor to continue leading Nigeria.

With T.Y Danjuma being the next in line, he declined and insisted that an apprehensive Olusegun Obasanjo took his place. He was assisted by Shehu Musa Yar’ adua as Chief of Staff. Muhammadu Buhari was also in contention for this post with Yar’adua but was edged by T.Y. Danjuma for his inflexibility which T.Y thought was not good for politics. With that understanding, Obasanjo moved to continue the program of Murtala. Let me add that the selection of Yar’adua as Chief of Staff was done to appeal to the North-Western region from where Murtala hailed.

Then came the second republic when Obasanjo conducted an election returning Nigeria to democratic rule under Alhaji Shehu Shagari. Shagari had served in several political positions before running for office and Nnamdi Azikiwe among other some first republic politicians equally contested for this election. If Murtala did not see it wise to return Nigeria to democratic rule, Shehu Shagari won’t have expected a successful run to Nigeria’s Presidency.

Yet again with the allegations of corruption, loss of jobs and a failure of the economy, the military came from the barracks and an unexpected Muhammadu Buhari in 1983 became the Head of State. His lasted for 30 months with challenges which Ibrahim Babangida and his loyalists banked on to remove him from office by 1985.

Ibrahim Babangida became the first Executive military President of Nigeria till pressures started coming for him to return Nigeria to democratic rule and there came the enigma of Chief M.K.O Abiola who contested the Presidential election of 1993, won but was denied the opportunity to ascend to Nigeria’s Presidency. With Babangida annulling that election for some untold truth and reasons and mounting pressures from civil society groups, he handed over power to an Interim government headed by Chief Ernest Shonekan who never thought this was going to happen. This was of course, short-lived as a Sani Abacha who was the Chief of Army Staff decided to take his chance and opportunity to Nigeria’s Presidency.

Sani Abacha decided to hold firm to power locking up M.K.O Abiola and Olusegun Obasanjo and many others. Obasanjo on his part was in prison and his business and farm were not doing so good because that is what happens when a man leaves his investments to other hands who don’t understand the passion of the person who started it. Sani Abacha did not stop his brutality and plans to perpetuate himself as President in a democratic rule return but Nigerians cried and prayed to God (as has been accounted for) and Abacha was called home.

M.K.O Abiola was not so lucky because he died before leaving the prison and that dream and visions to be President (have access to Nigeria’s Presidency) were denied. Let me also add that Atiku Abubakar equally ran for President in that 1993 elections. His journey to Nigeria’s Presidency obviously did not start today. Obasanjo on his own part of lucky to escape death in prison and many say he was not creditworthy by then. With Abdusalami Abubakar equally taking up that that office of the President reluctantly because he didn’t believe in the military interfering in politics, he made a way for a return to a Democracy.

Yet again, fate smiled at Obasanjo to be the President of Nigeria’s journey to practising institutional democracy and of course, not without agreements that Nigerians were not aware of (like zoning and others). After a successful two-term in office and unsuccessful attempt for a third term, he had to make way for another President. In order to compensate his friend and Chief of Army Staff Shehu Musa Yar’adua who died in Abacha’s detention by picking his younger brother Umar Musa Yar’adua as President despite knowing of his health challenge. This was in 2007.

Yar’adua picked Goodluck Jonathan who clearly was not bred as a politician but more of an academic and technocrat. Yar’ adua too was an academic but he equally got involved in business and the politics that characterized his family. Goodluck Jonathan however, became Governor of Bayelsa State after his boss was taken for anti-corruption charges. The nation lost a good man in Umar Musa Yar’ adua when he passed in 2010 after battling with a sickness described as pericarditis.

Goodluck Jonathan, now by the making of fate and his not expecting it became the President and Commander-In-Chief of the Armed Forces, Federal Republic of Nigeria. With the many many runs by Muhammadu Buhari in 200, 2007, 2011 all being futile and those of Atiku Abubakar in 2007, 2011 and 2015 being unsuccessful, it was clear that those who desire to get to Nigeria’s Presidency by all means never get it most of the time or they eventually get it when they decide to throw in the towel.

With Buhari already decided to retire from politics and the failings and criticism of Goodluck Jonathan, a President Muhammadu Buhari emerged on May 29, 2015, in the first transfer of power from a ruling to an opposition party in history. He is still on the journey of changing Nigeria and Nigeria’s are getting frustrated and as 2019 draws closer; I will like to draw the lessons about Nigeria’s Presidency for those who are getting ready as newcomers in the political arena.

The Mysteries/Trends

I will make this as brief as possible but if you look closely and have been monitoring history you will understand that Nigeria’s Presidency and politics are characterized by the following.

  • There is still a need to appeal to ethnic sentiments and differences which where the concept of zoning found its way into the equation from 1999. The PDP which was made up of men and women from the times of military did well to insert in their party’s constitution.
  • Secondly, those who eventually get to power have most times been part of the system, were groomed by it, mentored by others, learnt how it works and did not have newcomers automatically emerging to power. Yes, there is populism around the world but if you look closely those who are doing that was still part of the system. Trump has been making assertions to be President since the 90s, Emmanuel Macron was a part of a party before forming his movement. All these won’t have been possible without a system that allowed people to aspire and achieve when they have the right ideas and values. Nigeria is still very much involved in buying over things, money and slush funds in politics. Values and ideas are not yet on the front burner.
  • Then finally, Nigeria’s Presidency have all through history fallen on those who didn’t expect it, were not prepared, had given up, were okay with their jobs and a coup or a frustration with the old suddenly picks them to run for Presidency. And those who make it this way have the backing of power brokers, godfathers, sponsors, mentors, kingmakers and strong men who pave the way for their ascendancy. People who do the dirty politics while the man for the job waits for them to deliver.

That is the way it works I believe, so before those who seek for a third force by making an initial run to Nigeria’s Presidency this is the way history has been. Yes, it can change but the fundamental truth is that the system has not opened for this because many people can offer good leadership in this country but they are wise to understand how the system is. I might be wrong about this but this is my take from mere observation of history and the past and what I think the present will be especially for 2019.

Via Eureka Posts [https://eurekaposts.com/fela-durotoye-confident-win/]

 

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Inspired by Steve Biko’s ‘I Write What I Like‘, OP-UNEDITED is the citizen opinion segment of SIGNAL. All opinions posted on the OP-UNEDITED page are unedited and the raw opinions of the writers.

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