Nigeria’s ambition to increase crude oil production to three million barrels per day (mbpd) will depend on its ability to attract fresh investment, strengthen regulatory certainty, expand exploration and sustain the protection of critical oil and gas infrastructure, industry experts have said.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) is spearheading efforts to achieve the production target through new licensing opportunities, improved sector regulation and measures to encourage investment in the upstream petroleum industry.
The commission has announced plans for its 2026 oil and gas licensing round, offering 40 blocks across onshore, shallow-water and deepwater terrains to prospective investors.
Stakeholders say the initiative, alongside sustained pipeline surveillance by Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited (TSSNL) and other security agencies, could help Nigeria unlock additional production capacity, reduce crude oil losses and restore investor confidence.
Nigeria’s crude oil production peaked at approximately 2.5 million barrels per day in November 2005, according to historical production data. More than two decades later, the country is still working to surpass that milestone, despite reforms introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
The Federal Government is targeting production of three million barrels of oil daily and 12 billion cubic feet of gas by 2030, making increased investment and improved security central to its energy ambitions.
NUPRC opens new investment opportunities
A member of the NUPRC governing board, Sunday Adebayo, said the commission’s licensing rounds and improved industry conditions were helping to create opportunities for new investors.
He noted that previous licensing exercises had been successfully conducted, with further rounds expected to attract additional operators into the sector.
According to him, increased rig activity and improved cooperation between host communities and oil companies are also supporting the drive to raise production.
Adebayo said Nigeria must explore new frontiers and reactivate areas where petroleum operations had been suspended or remained underdeveloped.
He cited the Ogoni area as one of the locations where renewed activity could create opportunities for operators and associated businesses.
The NUPRC Chief Executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said the 2026 licensing round followed approvals from President Bola Tinubu and the Minister of Petroleum Resources.
She explained that the 40 blocks would be open to investors with the required technical competence, financial capacity and commitment to developing Nigeria’s petroleum resources.
Eyesan, however, warned that Nigeria must compete aggressively for global upstream capital.
“Investors have choices. They go where the rules are clear, where the process is predictable and where data can be trusted,” she said.
Her remarks highlight the importance of transparent licensing procedures, reliable geological information, timely approvals and stable regulatory conditions in attracting the capital needed to develop new fields and expand existing operations.
The commission has also emphasised compliance with licensing requirements. It previously warned 31 companies that won 37 blocks in the 2025 licensing round to pay their signature bonuses within the stipulated period or risk losing their provisional awards.
Under the applicable requirements, successful bidders must pay signature bonuses, provide guarantees, settle first-year rents and meet other post-award conditions. Failure to comply can result in the transfer of an award to a reserve bidder.
Beyond licensing and investment incentives, industry stakeholders have identified the protection of oil infrastructure as a critical requirement for achieving higher output.
For many operators, the cost of developing oil fields is only one part of the investment equation. Investors must also be confident that crude oil can be transported safely, production facilities can operate continuously and export commitments can be fulfilled without major disruptions.
This has brought the operations of Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited into focus.
The Federal Government appointed the company, led by High Chief Government Oweizide Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Tompolo, to support the protection of oil assets in the Niger Delta.
Working alongside other security agencies, Tantita conducts surveillance and supports efforts to prevent pipeline vandalism, illegal connections and crude oil theft.
The objective is to safeguard critical infrastructure, reduce losses and support uninterrupted movement of petroleum resources from producing areas to export terminals.
Stakeholders argue that sustained pipeline protection can improve production reliability and make Nigeria more attractive to investors by reducing operational risks.
The significance of infrastructure security extends beyond preventing theft. Disruptions to pipelines can affect production schedules, export volumes, government revenue and the ability of oil companies to meet contractual obligations.
Where transportation systems are secure, operators can plan production more effectively, while refiners and export customers can have greater confidence in the availability of crude supplies.
An industry expert, Nse Victor Udoh, said pipeline surveillance had helped shift the management of oil infrastructure from reactive crisis response towards longer-term planning.
He stressed, however, that pipeline surveillance was only one component of the wider energy sector.
“Energy security encompasses the full value chain, from exploration and production to refining, distribution, pricing policy, and subsidy frameworks. Pipeline surveillance does not manage these domains,” he said.
Udoh explained that the specific responsibility of pipeline surveillance was to protect critical infrastructure transporting petroleum resources, adding that this function was essential to the performance of the entire industry.
Without secure transportation channels, he said, production targets could be undermined, refining plans disrupted, exports reduced and government revenue projections weakened.
He described pipeline protection as a foundation for economic stability, arguing that reliable crude flows could improve investor confidence, strengthen national budgeting and make long-term commercial agreements easier to negotiate.
Investment gap remains a major challenge
Despite the renewed investment drive, Nigeria continues to face a significant funding gap in its oil and gas industry.
NUPRC Chief Executive Eyesan has previously stated that annual investments in the sector declined to approximately $2 billion from about $26 billion in 2014.
The decline highlights the scale of the challenge confronting policymakers as they seek to attract capital in an increasingly competitive global energy market.
Nigeria is responding with regulatory reforms and incentives designed to improve the commercial attractiveness of upstream projects, particularly offshore developments.
The commission has indicated that incentives for offshore oil and gas projects could unlock as much as $50 billion in new investment.
Realising that potential will depend on investors’ assessment of project economics, fiscal terms, regulatory stability, infrastructure availability and the country’s capacity to supply skilled personnel.
Eyesan has also stressed the need to strengthen technical competencies, particularly in subsurface exploration and digital technologies, to support the expansion of offshore operations.
The industry will require skilled geologists, engineers, drilling specialists, data professionals and other technical workers capable of supporting increasingly complex projects.
Mature fields offer additional opportunities
Experts have also highlighted the potential for increased investment in mature oil fields, where additional drilling, improved recovery techniques and upgraded production infrastructure could unlock remaining reserves.
The experience of Brittania-U, an indigenous oil and gas company, illustrates the scale of investment that may be required to revive and expand production from existing assets.
The company’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Catherine Uju Ifejika, has cited investments exceeding $400 million following Brittania-U’s acquisition of the Ajapa field from Chevron.
The investment included additional wells and the deployment of a floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) facility.
According to the account, the field began producing approximately 2,300 barrels per day in 2010, with output subsequently increasing and becoming more stable.
The example underscores the potential contribution of indigenous operators to production growth when they have access to capital, technology and the infrastructure needed to develop assets.
Increased investment in mature fields could complement new exploration by bringing additional barrels to market without depending exclusively on discoveries in frontier areas.
Coordinated strategy needed to achieve 3mbpd
Industry experts agree that no single intervention will be sufficient to raise production to three million barrels per day.
The licensing of new blocks must be accompanied by timely project approvals, access to financing, improved technical capacity, reliable infrastructure and effective security arrangements.
At the same time, existing fields require sustained investment to maintain output, while new discoveries need to be developed and connected to production and transportation facilities.
Host communities must also remain engaged in petroleum operations, with local participation and effective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act helping to support stability in producing areas.
The continued protection of pipelines by Tantita and other security agencies is expected to remain an important part of this effort, particularly in the Niger Delta, where oil theft and infrastructure vandalism have historically disrupted production.
Ultimately, Nigeria’s ability to attract long-term capital will depend on whether investors can operate within a predictable regulatory environment, protect their assets and achieve commercially viable returns.
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