Campaign 2016 Debate

Hillary Clinton’s Popularity Declines, New Poll Shows Trump Would Still Defeat Her

There is an interesting Gallup poll out that shows that, after an active speaking tour promoting her book and her retrospective on her loss to Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton has actually become even more unpopular.  We have previously noted that polls have shown Trump would still beat Clinton in a head-to-head election (and here).  While Trump is also facing declining polls, he is at the same level or even higher than Clinton. Clinton posted the lowest polling numbers yet with only 36% popularity and an unfavorable rating of 61%. Polls are showing Trump at 38 percent.  While a new poll shows that half of people feel Trump should resign, it is clear that they want Clinton even less — the very same position held by many in the campaign.

Before the establishment all but anointed Clinton as their candidate in the primary, polls clearly showed that the voters did not want an establishment figure so the DNC worked to guarantee the nomination to the ultimate establishment figure. However, it clearly goes deeper than that.  Even against one of the most unpopular figures in history (Trump was even worse at 63 percent unfavorable), Clinton could not even maintain a majority of women with favorability ratings.

What is interesting is that the Clinton have converted their impressive network of media and political allies into an all-out rehabilitation campaign with her book as the focus.  The clear effort to is insist that it was not Clinton who is responsible for the Trump election and that, once again, forces gathered to block her from succeeding,  It was a continuation of the mixed campaign themes. On issues ranging from her still undisclosed Wall Street speeches to her past legal controversies to her email scandal, Clinton continually changed her rationales and deflected responsibility. After the election, Clinton alternatively blamed sexismracismself-hating womendomineering boyfriendsRussian hackersBernie Sanders, and of course, James Comey.

It has been interesting to watch that, like Trump’s core of 30 percent, Clinton’s core still shows up at events and show no diminishment in their adoration for one of the most flawed politicians in presidential history.  Adoring crowds applaud her every statement and excuse.  Yet, for the rest of the country, the continued exposure to Clinton has only reinforced their apparent visceral dislike for the former candidate.

Clinton’s low favorability ratings were previously at 38% in late August/early September 2016 during the presidential campaign. Notably this really did not move from April 1992 when she also registered a 38% favorable rating.  What is different is not just the dip of popularity but the significant increase in unpopular figures.

Trump is doing little better. One CNN poll actually shows him at 35 percent popularity. The lowest level of popularity of any modern president (since Eisenhower) in December of their first year was 49 percent. Other polls show 38 percent popularity and 56.8 percent unpopularity.

As discussed earlier, Trump’s polling numbers have actually been better than some international figures like Macron.  Angela Merkel is polling as low as 29 percent.

Update: Trump has cited a poll showing him at 48 percent at the end of the year, but that poll has been criticized as an outlier. Of course , some polls are better than others when there are no choices but a range from “great” to “good” to “okay” to “other.”




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